Raw debt totals are misleading across time: the economy grows, the population grows, and inflation erodes nominal values. The right question is not "how much?" but "how efficient per shilling relative to the economy?" These metrics eliminate political bias and expose structural truth.
Devolution structurally increases administrative cost - that is a constitutional fact, not a political argument. The issue is not devolution itself, but whether borrowing funded investment (infrastructure, human capital) or consumption (wages, recurrent operations). When interest payments consume ~33% of revenue, future generations are paying for today's running costs - not roads, schools, or hospitals. The stronger argument is: "Efficiency per shilling has declined relative to GDP and population-adjusted benchmarks."
| President | Years | Debt/GDP | Debt per Citizen | Debt Growth Rate | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moi 1978-2002 |
24 | 37% -> 42% | KES 1K -> 19K | +14.8%/yr | High growth, low base |
| Kibaki 2002-2013 |
11 | 42% -> 33% | KES 19K -> 41K | +10.2%/yr | Debt ratio improved |
| Uhuru 2013-2022 |
9 | 33% -> 64% | KES 41K -> 160K | +19.2%/yr | Fastest accumulation |
| Ruto 2022-present |
3 | 64% -> ??% | KES 160K -> ??K | +??%/yr | Debt acceleration |